The overall theme of this series, if it isn't obvious yet, is that mastering poker and reaching our goals takes time - a lot of time. It's this investment of time that makes it so vital to define our goals and our plan on how to reach them. Spending time working in one direction only to find we didn't really want to be where we ended up is unfortunate. Spending time working to reach a goal only to come to a late realization that it's unattainable is also unfortunate. Proper planning should minimize the risk of these things happening.
But this lesson is about taking into account that building a bankroll is, or can be, a slow and tedious process as well. Some people take a shot and win a (relative to their bankroll) huge amount of money in a tournament which allows them to move up very quickly. Many more people take shots and lose their stake; hopefully they realized that this was the more likely outcome. Some other people refuse to take shots and simply grind their way up, moving up in the ranks no sooner than their bankroll is good for it. I'm one of those people, although I wouldn't presume to say that it's the only - or even necessarily the best - way to work one's way up. Different things work for different people.
What's clear to me, however, is that unless you're an exceptional player who just happens to be a bit short on money right now, the average time it will take you to reach higher limits will be about the same regardless of if you take shots or grind yourself up. If you know that you're a lot more skilled than the opposition, playing higher games than you're technically bankrolled for is alright, and so you may be able to save yourself some time by taking shots.
But if you move along the usual path of progression, learning as you go and therefore ensuring that you're ahead of the curve already before moving up (and thus keeping a solid win-rate), I have some interesting numbers to show you:
Let's say that you're a limit hold 'em player, and your goal is to reach the $10/$20 tables. You figure that your average win-rate, if you're disciplined and work hard on studying (as discussed in the last chapter), will be somewhere around one to two big bets per 100 hands played. Your original investment was to take out $300 from your savings account and deposit it into a poker site and you use a fairly standard rule of keeping a 300 big bet bankroll, meaning that you will not move up until you've built up 300 big bets of the next rank among limits. Your starting capital will let you play at $.50/$1 tables. How many hands will it take you to reach $10/$20, if you can truly sustain a win-rate of 1 big bet/100 hands all the way up?
Easy. You need to win 300 big bets at $.50/$1, which is simply 300 x 100 hands (you win one bet per 100 hands) = 30,000 hands. A single table deals about 80 hands per hour; meaning that you're looking at 375 hours of time at the table. If you study one hour for every two played (as I've mentioned in previous articles), you're suddenly looking at 535 hours spent on poker. In terms of a regular day job, that's a little more than 13 weeks. Thirteen weeks! Just to get from $.50/$1 to $1/$2! And then you have another 13 weeks to get from $1/$2 to $2/$4, etc.
Of course, if you multi-table (and sustain your win-rate) you can cut down this time by quite a bit. And if your win-rate is higher than 1BB/100, that will of course also influence how fast you get to where you're going. But even at playing four tables at once at a win-rate of 2BB/100, we're still talking about 47 hours at the table, or about 1.5 weeks of work. Aha, now it sounded easy, didn't it? 1.5 weeks is not that much. But I know of very few people who are capable of four-tabling for a long term profit of 2BB/100 successfully. So, realistically, you're looking at quite a bit more than that.
So why am I bringing this up? Because I want you to understand that this is not a game of instant gratification, and that if you think you'll be playing $10/$20 within a few months, you're kidding yourself.
Another thing to consider is that you may wish to cash out some profit once in awhile. There are several reasons for why you'd want to do this, but to name a few:
If you go on a hot streak, seemingly being invincible, you can make a huge profit in a fairly short period of time even at the low limit tables. I've had sessions of a thousand hands where everything went my way, quickly making 150 BB or so. This can be deceiving, because you're not actually that good: No one's that good. This fast bankroll boost, in turn, can make you move up before you're actually ready for it, before you've actually learned all the things you needed to learn prior to sitting down at the next level. Cashing out excess profit will effectively take the edge of that problem.Your bankroll will increase at half its speed (but still drop at normal speed) so upswings won't push you too far too quickly as easily.
Speaking for myself, I've chosen to cash out half of everything I earn. It's simple to keep track of, it gives me a decent amount of pocket change and it keeps me from playing limits I'm not really ready for yet. I've spent a lot of time at each of the limits I've played, and this has given me plenty of time to learn what I need to learn before moving up. So far, I've been ready to crush the game at the new level even before I've gotten there.
Now, when I say "half of what I earn" I don't mean half of the profits from any given session, I should point out. What I do is to keep track - on a weekly basis - of the size of my bankroll. When my bankroll is at a new maximum (which thankfully happens pretty often), I simply take out half of the difference between the new maximum and the old one - half the profit. If I go into a slump, I don't cash out anything until I've reached a new record, etc. In practice, I cash out $100 whenever my bankroll has increased by $200, for simplicity.
But to summarize this lesson: Building a bankroll the conventional way takes a lot of time. Don't expect miracles, because miracles by definition don't happen very often. Instead, take this slow advancement as a good time to learn more about the game and practice hard. At the higher limits, the challenges will be much greater, and you will be able to make good use of the experience you amass here, once you get there.
But this lesson is about taking into account that building a bankroll is, or can be, a slow and tedious process as well. Some people take a shot and win a (relative to their bankroll) huge amount of money in a tournament which allows them to move up very quickly. Many more people take shots and lose their stake; hopefully they realized that this was the more likely outcome. Some other people refuse to take shots and simply grind their way up, moving up in the ranks no sooner than their bankroll is good for it. I'm one of those people, although I wouldn't presume to say that it's the only - or even necessarily the best - way to work one's way up. Different things work for different people.
What's clear to me, however, is that unless you're an exceptional player who just happens to be a bit short on money right now, the average time it will take you to reach higher limits will be about the same regardless of if you take shots or grind yourself up. If you know that you're a lot more skilled than the opposition, playing higher games than you're technically bankrolled for is alright, and so you may be able to save yourself some time by taking shots.
But if you move along the usual path of progression, learning as you go and therefore ensuring that you're ahead of the curve already before moving up (and thus keeping a solid win-rate), I have some interesting numbers to show you:
Let's say that you're a limit hold 'em player, and your goal is to reach the $10/$20 tables. You figure that your average win-rate, if you're disciplined and work hard on studying (as discussed in the last chapter), will be somewhere around one to two big bets per 100 hands played. Your original investment was to take out $300 from your savings account and deposit it into a poker site and you use a fairly standard rule of keeping a 300 big bet bankroll, meaning that you will not move up until you've built up 300 big bets of the next rank among limits. Your starting capital will let you play at $.50/$1 tables. How many hands will it take you to reach $10/$20, if you can truly sustain a win-rate of 1 big bet/100 hands all the way up?
Easy. You need to win 300 big bets at $.50/$1, which is simply 300 x 100 hands (you win one bet per 100 hands) = 30,000 hands. A single table deals about 80 hands per hour; meaning that you're looking at 375 hours of time at the table. If you study one hour for every two played (as I've mentioned in previous articles), you're suddenly looking at 535 hours spent on poker. In terms of a regular day job, that's a little more than 13 weeks. Thirteen weeks! Just to get from $.50/$1 to $1/$2! And then you have another 13 weeks to get from $1/$2 to $2/$4, etc.
Of course, if you multi-table (and sustain your win-rate) you can cut down this time by quite a bit. And if your win-rate is higher than 1BB/100, that will of course also influence how fast you get to where you're going. But even at playing four tables at once at a win-rate of 2BB/100, we're still talking about 47 hours at the table, or about 1.5 weeks of work. Aha, now it sounded easy, didn't it? 1.5 weeks is not that much. But I know of very few people who are capable of four-tabling for a long term profit of 2BB/100 successfully. So, realistically, you're looking at quite a bit more than that.
So why am I bringing this up? Because I want you to understand that this is not a game of instant gratification, and that if you think you'll be playing $10/$20 within a few months, you're kidding yourself.
Another thing to consider is that you may wish to cash out some profit once in awhile. There are several reasons for why you'd want to do this, but to name a few:
- It's a reward for good work; a pat on the back if you will. I discussed this in Lesson #2.
- You can use the money to pay for books, hand analyzing software, etc.
- If your significant other has a problem with you playing poker, cashing out your earnings and taking her or him out to dinner for the winnings is a good way to avoid arguments. Trust me on this one.
- If you lose everything, you'll still have the money you've cashed out.
If you go on a hot streak, seemingly being invincible, you can make a huge profit in a fairly short period of time even at the low limit tables. I've had sessions of a thousand hands where everything went my way, quickly making 150 BB or so. This can be deceiving, because you're not actually that good: No one's that good. This fast bankroll boost, in turn, can make you move up before you're actually ready for it, before you've actually learned all the things you needed to learn prior to sitting down at the next level. Cashing out excess profit will effectively take the edge of that problem.Your bankroll will increase at half its speed (but still drop at normal speed) so upswings won't push you too far too quickly as easily.
Speaking for myself, I've chosen to cash out half of everything I earn. It's simple to keep track of, it gives me a decent amount of pocket change and it keeps me from playing limits I'm not really ready for yet. I've spent a lot of time at each of the limits I've played, and this has given me plenty of time to learn what I need to learn before moving up. So far, I've been ready to crush the game at the new level even before I've gotten there.
Now, when I say "half of what I earn" I don't mean half of the profits from any given session, I should point out. What I do is to keep track - on a weekly basis - of the size of my bankroll. When my bankroll is at a new maximum (which thankfully happens pretty often), I simply take out half of the difference between the new maximum and the old one - half the profit. If I go into a slump, I don't cash out anything until I've reached a new record, etc. In practice, I cash out $100 whenever my bankroll has increased by $200, for simplicity.
But to summarize this lesson: Building a bankroll the conventional way takes a lot of time. Don't expect miracles, because miracles by definition don't happen very often. Instead, take this slow advancement as a good time to learn more about the game and practice hard. At the higher limits, the challenges will be much greater, and you will be able to make good use of the experience you amass here, once you get there.
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